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MAY 31 , 2017
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If you are still wondering how Donald Trump was able to win the Presidency despite massive odds against him, perhaps this issue of IntelDigest will explain a lot. We continue a series on the subject of “Work in America.” Please feel free to go to the IntelDigest Archive to review the earlier issues, dated May 17 and May 24.
Work in America
The heart of the problem in U.S. Employment is that many American jobs, especially in manufacturing, have been contracting for decades.
Donald Trump became President by speaking to a large group of voters … millions of Americans who were unemployed or underemployed … who were virtually ignored by other candidates. By speaking to their anxieties, he won the White House.
Of course, he won over those voters, primarily, by blaming competition from Chinese workers and undocumented Mexicans for the loss of jobs in the American heartland. Actually, there is little truth to either claim. But, these were Americans whose fathers had had much better jobs than they could obtain. They wanted a “better deal.” And, Trump promised to make a better deal for them.
But, foreign workers have played a very small part in the contraction of jobs in the U.S. Economic growth rates have been trending down for 40 years. The number of people with “breadwinner” jobs … as a percentage of the working-age population … is at a 40-year low.
The overall civilian labor force (comprising both men and women) grew steadily for much of the latter half of the 20th Century. After a decline from 2000 to 2010, the employment rate has leveled off.
However, the Male participation rate has been in steady decline since 1950.
As we stated last week, that large numbers of American men in their prime are simply not working has become a significant political and cultural problem in our society.
Men Without Work
Approximately 10 million American men of prime working age (25 to 54) have simply dropped out of the workforce in recent years; further, many of them have also
abdicated their commitments or responsibilities to society, and their role in community life.
Male participation in the civilian labor force has been steadily dropping for 60 years, through boom and bust years, periods of inflation and deflation, conservative and liberal presidential administrations, Republican and Democratic congressional control.
The trend has been relentless, and was in place long before automation began to really impact the manufacturing workforce, or jobs began to shift to China and other countries with lower labor costs. However, it picked up speed after the Financial Crisis of 2008.
Forces at Work
To a great extent, technological progress has eliminated opportunities for the low-skilled, especially in manufacturing. Researchers have estimated that over 85% of manufacturing job losses in recent years are attributable to growth in productivity in U.S. factories, while closer to 13% can be traced to foreign imports.
The impact on society is acute. As economic life has become less secure, low-skilled men (both White Males and Men of Color) have tended toward unstable cohabiting relationships; for the most part, they eschew traditional marriage and traditional communal religion.
A large percentage become more likely to stop working … or even looking for work … entirely. Such a breakdown of family, community, and structure often leads to blaming themselves and feeling helpless and desperate.
The collapse of work opportunities for American men is really a crisis. However, it has been largely an invisible crisis … seldom discussed in the media or academia or business or the halls of the legislatures which should be tasked with addressing the problem. Where has the concern been for the last few decades?
The detachment of so many adult American men from the ranks of regular paid labor poses a threat to the future prosperity of the United States. It can only result in lower living standards, greater economic disparities, and slower economic growth than we might otherwise expect.
What of the societal, cultural, and moral repercussions on American life? Many men have lost their status as productive members of their families, and live as dependents of their wives, girlfriends, partners, aging parents, or the government. The American culture was built on a foundation of hard work and self-reliance; for many, the “new normal” of their lives is quite discordant.
For years, economists and policymakers serving under both Republican and Democratic presidents have been cheerleaders for employment numbers published by the federal government. Within just the last two years, none other than the two most-recent chairmen of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, have been “encouraged” by the U.S. economy and the state of “full employment.”
As we stated last week, such proclamations of “full employment” are laughable.
The “real” unemployment numbers are 3-4 times the “official” statistics. And, the great contradiction of economic life in America is that economic growth has produced markedly more wealth for “those that have,” and markedly less work for many American (mostly male) workers.
Is it not apparent, then, that a large voting bloc of American workers … untouched as they were by the (slow) growth of the economy … was dissatisfied with the direction of the country, feeling the sting of their own continuing recession, and heeding more extremist voices in the political landscape?
We will have more on Work in America and the Future of Work in the next two issues of IntelDigest … looking at mortality and addiction and social insecurity of the American Worker … automation and artificial intelligence in the American Economy.
And, we will ask, “Where will Growth come from” to improve Work in America?