IntelDigest – June 28, 2017

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JUNE 28 , 2017

 

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We continue a series on “Technology and Connectivity” in this issue of  IntelDigest.

 

Global Forces

Trade, technology, and demographics have evolved into the primary forces affecting the Global Economy.

Trade among countries and peoples has gone on for millennia, and became truly intercontinental with the Venetian traders (even before Marco Polo) a thousand years ago.  With every new innovation in communication and transportation, global trade has grown by leaps and bounds.  The Industrial Revolution and development of the steamship in the 1800s hastened traders to the far corners of the earth.  Post-World War II, the innovation of containerized shipping drastically reduced the cost of moving goods around the world.

The Information Technology (IT) revolution in the 1990s made it possible to move data and ideas across borders with lightning speed.  The very nature of the Global Economy has changed radically in just the last 25 years because of technological advances.  We have discussed the impact on “Work in America.”  Please feel free to go to the IntelDigest Archive to review the earlier issues, dated from mid-May to mid-June of this year.

Knowledge and technology have expanded opportunities in emerging countries.  Businesses and their workers have been able to join the global supply chain, producing a multitude of products … from semiconductors to machine parts … paving their own paths toward economic prosperity.

The future of IT promises more momentous innovations. One example will be advances in telerobotics, enabling users to overcome geographical boundaries, to interact with people in other countries and continents, to work at jobs in other parts of the world without leaving home.

 

As China Evolves

China has been the face of the economic evolution over the last three decades.  Demographics played a major role in its development.  Its massive labor pool allowed China to rapidly gain status as the “Factory to the World” for production and assembly of light manufactured goods.  In just a few years, Western companies moved manufacture of a growing number of high-end goods, such is iPhones, to China.  A worldwide Bull Market in commodities resulted from China’s industrial evolution, as raw materials were needed to produce goods for Western markets and build massive new cities around the country.

Now, a shift is underway, toward a growing services sector, production of more valuable goods, and a more sustainable long-term growth driven by domestic consumption.  This is a work in progress, and every step along the way impacts the Global Economy, illustrating the importance of China as the Second Largest Economy in the world.

As China’s economy shifts, slowing growth is cutting into the bottom lines of other economies around the world, both developed countries and emerging economies.  Commodity exporters had reaped the benefits of heavy construction and investment in China since the late-1990s.  Now, the reduced need for raw materials forces painful readjustments and financial stresses at home.

Meanwhile, advanced economies are concerned about Chinese competitiveness in manufacturing more high-end parts … semiconductors, transistors, liquid crystal displays for computer screens … which China previously imported from the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

Beijing would like to see more high-end goods sold domestically, and less dependence on export markets for the Chinese economy.

Transformation

As the Global Economy changed rapidly over the last 25 years with the growth in China, be prepared for yet another transformation in world markets.  Deep structural changes are underway, which will likely last another 25 years.  Along with the maturation of the China economy, the old model of using labor-intensive, low-end manufacturing as an engine for growth is fading.

Information Technology supports a new paradigm. Productivity is a key driver of economic growth, and investments in technology which can raise output and lower costs are critical to competitiveness.

The dilemma is that advances and innovations in several technologies, such as robotics and advanced manufacturing, which have made industry more efficient in the 21st Century, have not left much room or opportunity for the unskilled or low-skilled worker.  Manufacturing can no longer be counted on as a major creator of jobs.

The best opportunities in manufacturing in the coming decades will be jobs involved in programming and maintaining the robotic machines which will increasingly displace humans for repetitive tasks.  Automation of routine services jobs and advances in computerization will continue to change the Nature of Work;  workers will have to learn the skills needed to fill jobs where human innovation and creativity is not as easily replaced by computers.

Next week, we will continue this series on “Technology and Connectivity,” comparing the effects of technology on our own society and on some of our trade partners and rivals.

IntelDigest – June 21, 2017

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JUNE 21 , 2017

 

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Having devoted several issues of  IntelDigest  to the subject of “Work in America,” we begin a series on “Technology and Connectivity.”  This issue will constitute a bridge between the two series, as it touches on both areas.

 

Economic Nationalism

The prevailing policy of the current Administration is one of  Nationalism.  Donald Trump campaigned vigorously on an “America First” platform, and almost 63 million American voters decided that that sounded good to them. We have discussed, in several previous issues, the widespread concerns among millions of our citizens for their ability to hold a good job and maintain a decent livelihood in the 21st Century.

Some would say that a resurgence of Nationalism in stressful economic times is natural;  in any event, this will be a significant force in remaking (or, undoing) the European Union, and reshaping U.S. interactions with allies and adversaries alike.

However, this is a particularly bad time for Americans to adopt an insular, self-dependent attitude with respect to the global economy.

Unrelenting technological development and demographic trends support increased connectivity with the rest of the world.  There is a greater demand for skilled labor in the 21st Century global marketplace, in both services and manufacturing.  Advances in telerobotics and technology transfer across borders continue to grow apace, which will allow workers greater opportunities to have careers and good jobs in one country while continuing to reside in another.  Foreigners will certainly want to take advantage of such an option, allowing a worker the chance at a good job without having to emigrate and break up his or her family.

Why would American workers choose to close themselves off from similar opportunities?

 

American business executives realize that their companies’ competitiveness is not enhanced by American Isolation. Most U.S. companies favored the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiated by the Obama Administration, and generally favor most trade agreements.  They know that U.S. companies have generally outgrown domestic markets and need international markets in order to sustain growth.

Punitive measures by the Trump Administration against our trading partners are self-defeating;  they obstruct American businesses from competing in a world of growing opportunity.

American economic growth depends on opening foreign markets to U.S. goods, services and investment, while reforming our tax structure, immigration and education policies, and infrastructure in order to make investment in America more attractive.

The Trump Administration should take care that “America First” does not hinder our participation in global markets.

Global Trends

Despite oft-expressed anxieties about Globalization, the reality is that one of the most significant trends of the 21st Century is the unrelenting expansion of cross-border connectivity around the world.  The movement of people, capital, goods and services, transactions, and data grows every minute of every day.  As Americans, we have to worry that our country will fall behind because of political intransigence while other regions, entities, and nations deepen their connections with each another.

Donald Trump’s WorldView is that the U.S. should leverage its economic might … force the rest of the world to “play ball” if they want to access American finance and customers.  That may have been true in the past.  But, global trade relationships have been realigning, suggesting that such trade will keep growing with or without the United States.

We mentioned the TPP, above.  After President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the TPP, most of the other members of the Partnership decided to move forward, and welcomed China into the Partnership in our place.  Ironic, in that the Obama Administration had initially pitched the agreement to Congress as a means of containing the rise of China!

Another massive deal centered on China is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes ten Southeast Asian economies, as well as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and India.  All of the TPP and RCEP member economies are current or prospective trading partners for the U.S.  However, while America sits on the sidelines, China takes our place in global trade.

What will happen when these Mega Trade Deals move forward?  They will certainly integrate Asian markets in a way that will make them even harder for American firms to penetrate.  Indigenous Asian businesses will quickly move up the value chain to take the places that U.S. companies have had to themselves.

Is there any wonder that the largest U.S. companies oppose Trump’s efforts to erect barriers that would keep manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors at home?  A proposed “border adjustment tax” would raise the cost of their imports.  Meanwhile, absent the TPP, how easy will it be for American multinationals to expand into markets … and compete with other developed economies … where the U.S. refused to join the trade partnerships?

Next week, we will continue this series on “Technology and Connectivity,” tracing the history of technological advances, and looking at the effects of technology on our own society and on some of our trade partners and rivals.

IntelDigest – June 14, 2017

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JUNE 14 , 2017

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In this issue of IntelDigest, we finish a series on the subject of “Work in America.”

 

Politics and American Jobs

The problem of “Work in America” played a very large role in the 2016 election results.  In his campaign, Donald Trump focused his message at a segment of the electorate which has been under economic stress and pressure.  Many middle-class Americans have felt “The American Dream” slipping away.  Trump leveraged this discontent and resentment, and he garnered just enough support to win the Presidency.

 

Lack of Work in America

The heart of the problem in U.S. Employment is that many American jobs, especially in manufacturing, have been contracting for decades.

Trump became President by speaking to a large group of voters … millions of Americans who were unemployed or underemployed … who were virtually ignored by other candidates.  However, he did so by deflecting the causes on foreigners … blaming competition from Chinese workers and undocumented Mexicans for the loss of jobs in the American heartland.  Actually, there is little truth to either claim.  But, these were Americans whose fathers had had much better jobs than they could obtain.  They wanted a “better deal.”  And, Trump promised to make a better deal for them.

But, foreign workers have played a very small part in the contraction of jobs in the U.S.  In reality, better efficiency and productivity have much more to do with the change in American manufacturing.  Some researchers have estimated that over 85% of manufacturing job losses in recent years are attributable to growth in productivity in U.S. factories, while closer to 13% can be traced to foreign imports.

 

Headwinds for the American Middle Class

Economic growth rates have been trending down for 40 years.  The number of people with “breadwinner” jobs … as a percentage of the working-age population … is at a 40-year low.

The primary factor in this trend, as mentioned above, has been efficiency and productivity (directly related to Technology, which we discuss later in this letter).  However, two other factors have had a significant effect on American Jobs:  Trade Policy and Tax Policy.

We have written about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was negotiated in 1993.  One effect of NAFTA was to curb price inflation in the U.S.  The American consumer economy was able to expand … and our consumers received the benefit of low prices … by accessing cheaper labor in other countries.

However, American Manufacturing was already shrinking because of advances in efficiency and productivity.  The influx of cheaper goods from foreign countries only added to the distress of U.S. workers in manufacturing.

In the November 16 issue of  IntelDigest, we highlighted a paper by Dani Rodrik, a professor of economics at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He argued that “unmanaged globalization” is undermining democracy.

“The promise of free trade is undeniable:  Everybody likes those everyday low prices.  But the consequences of the differential distribution of the benefits of globalization are becoming disturbingly clear:  For the upper classes, the world is their oyster.  For the lower classes, the world is their competitor.”

Those who can take advantage of the global economy can benefit from Globalization, while those who don’t have the resources and skills are left behind.

 

Tax Policy also affects American jobs.  For example, the U.S. is the only industrial country in the world with “global income taxation,” which makes an American Citizen’s earned income subject to U.S. federal income tax, no matter where in the world that the citizen lives or works.  Also, unlike other industrialized countries, the American tax system has no “value-added tax.”

This means that our tax policy unduly burdens wage earners, while rewarding individuals and corporations who use overseas labor.  This has contributed to a decline in real, after-tax wages over the last 40 years.  No wonder that the Middle Class has suffered.

We have discussed Tax Policy in  IntelDigest on several occasions, and will continue to return to the subject, as it is a vital factor in the “Future of Work” and “Economic Growth in America.”

 

How Will Our Economy Grow?

Growth of the U.S. Economy rests on continual increases in Productivity along with expansion of the Workforce.  Our leaders … both government and business …
must find ways to increase Work Opportunities for our citizens.  Increased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) … and the ability to “grow” out of our National Debt headache … depends on solutions to the problems of Work in America.

We have to reverse or counteract recent trends in U.S. Labor Participation in order to fill new jobs.  As we have discussed in recent issues, large numbers of American men in their prime have left the workforce.  This situation has developed over several decades, but has reached crisis levels.  If the trends continue, nearly a quarter of all men between the ages of 25–54 will be jobless by mid-century.

Coupled with the retirement/slowing of the millions of members of the Baby Boom Generation, we are simply not going to get the increase in GDP that normally comes from growth in the workforce.  The next generation of American workers, both male and female, must step up to keep the engine of the American Economy running.

If the “Lost Generation” of working males does not make its way back into the workforce to offset the retirement of the Boomers, the only option for American Business is to encourage Immigration, in contravention of the prevailing ideology of the Ruling Party.

 

Thinking About Solutions

An encouraging sign from the Congress and Administration has been a willingness to suggest some new ways of doing business.  Although we are far from the point of actual legislation … it is unlikely that we will see serious action on important matters such as Tax Reform and Jobs until next Winter, at the earliest … there has been talk of lowering business income taxes and adopting a value-added tax to discourage foreign production of goods for U.S. markets.

 

Technology and Its Effect on Work

Technological innovations are always at the forefront of advances in Productivity.  However, they seem to work at cross-purposes to the livelihood of the American Worker. Although new technologies are constantly creating new jobs in new fields, Technology aggravates the problems of Work in America to the extent that such advances make it cost-effective for machines to replace human workers.

As machines do more and more entry-level tasks, an American Worker who lacks the skills and training to rise above such work will fall to the bottom of the jobs ladder, and eventually drop out of the workforce.  The only chance to stay ahead of the machines is to obtain the education and training to work in new fields, often jobs which didn’t even exist a decade earlier.

 

The Future of Work: Automation, Information Technology, Artificial Intelligence

Where will Automation take us next?

Certainly, more robust Information Technology … Cloud computing and storage, faster computing speeds, more widespread application of digital technology to the analog world … will continue to transform our world, with inevitable impact on both manufacturing and non-manufacturing jobs.

The only “Sure Thing” about the coming decades is that Work in America will be constantly changing, adapting to new technologies.  For the American Worker, the catchphrase “Adapt or Die” will be words-to-live-by.

In our lifetimes, we have seen the invention and development of products, industries, and technologies which we couldn’t even imagine just a few years earlier. This trend will surely continue inexorably in the coming decades.  Beyond new products and services, perhaps we will see entirely new standards for measuring Work and Productivity, and compensating workers for their labor. Perhaps the very idea or Work will be redefined.

We will likely see, over the next 20 years, greater use of machines which can work on their own, with little supervision.  This certainly includes self-driving vehicles, which have already driven over One Million Miles in research programs on the streets of several U.S. cities. Fleets of autonomous trucks will be criss-crossing the country within that time frame.

Meanwhile, the development and expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) could have a major impact on employment in many sectors, not just manufacturing.  Some researchers believe that human and machine reasoning will converge over the next 15 years or so.

 

There are many more questions about the Future of Work. So, we will come back to this subject periodically to discuss advancements-to-date and Bright Ideas for the Future.

 

 

 

IntelDigest – June 7, 2017

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JUNE 7 , 2017

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We continue a series on “Work in America.” Please feel free to go to the IntelDigest Archive to review earlier letters on this subject, beginning with the May 17 issue.

Men Without Work

As we have discussed in this series, large numbers of American men in their prime have left the workforce.  This situation has developed over several decades, but has reached crisis levels over the early part of this century.  It is now one of the greatest problems in American society.

The collapse of work opportunities for American men has two main causes:  technological advances and greater opportunities for women in the workforce.

To a great extent, technological progress has eliminated opportunities for the low-skilled, especially in manufacturing.  Technological innovation has been marching forward … with ever-increasing speed … since World War II.  And it will continue apace into the future, affecting service industries and white-collar professions in addition to low-skilled manufacturing.

Increased opportunities for women in the workforce grew steadily from the 1950s through the 1990s.  Participation of women caused the overall work rate for U.S. adults to steadily increase, which camouflaged the steady decrease of men in the workforce over the same time period.

Comparing statistics from 1965 and 2014, more than eight times as many prime-age men were “economically inactive” and not pursuing education in 2014 than there were in 1965.  This trend has relentless intergenerational momentum;  Labor Force Participation Rates tend to deteriorate with each succeeding cohort in every age group
.

The detachment of so many adult American men from the ranks of regular paid labor poses a threat to the future prosperity of the United States.  It can only result in lower living standards, greater economic disparities, and slower economic growth than we might otherwise expect.

Everyone should applaud the March of Progress for both technology and women in our society.  However, we should apply the vaunted American Ingenuity to finding ways to pull forward those who have fallen behind in recent years.

Personal and Societal Crises

If the trends discussed above should continue, nearly a quarter of all men between the ages of 25–54 will be jobless by mid-century.  This won’t be good for our society … large numbers of unoccupied young males are rarely beneficial to social order.

We discussed last week the acute impact on society and community life of Men Without Work.  However, the personal costs for those affected by unemployment and underemployment are plain for all to see right now, and should provide an impetus for solving this most pressing of societal problems.

Among the many demons which plague the unemployed, we will briefly discuss:  Lack of Education, Disincentives to Work, Addiction, Criminal Records.

Education

Many of the aimless, predominantly-male Americans who are trapped in an unemployment cycle have no college education or specialized training to help them succeed in competition for good jobs.  Whether one’s plight is due to lack of resources or dedication or luck, prospects are unlikely to improve as time goes on.  Many do not progress beyond manual labor or low-end service work.

Too many become completely discouraged in their work life and retreat to a couch to play video games.  When they retreat from the workforce, the government stops counting them … what could be lower than being too insignificant to be called “unemployed.”

Disincentives

Our Great Society has adopted several well-intentioned social programs to provide Safety Nets for citizens who endure adverse circumstances, including unemployment. These programs are created on the national, state, and local levels of government.  However, some of the programs actually create a disincentive to work.

The point of these programs should be lending a temporary hand to those who fall on hard times;  society benefits by making them productive again.  But, open-ended benefits can do more harm in the long run, both to the recipient and to society-at-large.

In the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis, claims for Disability Benefits skyrocketed, and the rolls of benefit recipients grew to approximately 14 million.  It is arguable that a significant percentage of recipients are not genuinely disabled, particularly in the group of prime-age non-working males who have been the subject of these letters.

Unfortunately, disability checks and means-tested benefits … although far from lavish … have come to represent a permanent alternative to paid employment for growing numbers of American men.

With regard to all government benefit programs, it is fair to question whether they represent helpful and productive incentives for the recipients.  And, we should not hesitate to change programs in order to improve efficacy … without falling back on ideological arguments, whether from the Left or the Right.

Addiction

Just as disability programs have inadvertently facilitated the exit of large numbers of men from the workforce, Medicaid has inadvertently facilitated an Opioid Epidemic in our country, especially among the unemployed and underemployed.

Statistic show that:

* A startlingly high number … some say 50% … of men-without-work take prescription pain medicines;  others use alcohol or other drugs

* In a 2015 report by the Drug Enforcement Administration, more Americans died from drug overdoses than from either traffic fatalities or guns

* A study from the Ohio Department of Health stated that “… fully 11 percent of Ohioans were prescribed opiates…” over the period of the study

* In a study of mortality, death rates rose sharply for those with high school diplomas or less … most of the rise in death rates was due to suicides, chronic liver cirrhosis, and poisonings (including drug overdoses)

This sound more like Russia … we have been reading for years about the devastating effects of vodka-and-drug-binging among Russians.  But, no …  This Is America.

How is Medicaid implicated in the Opioid Epidemic?  More than 1-in-5 of all civilian men between the ages of 25-55 are Medicaid beneficiaries.  More than half of prime-age people who are not in the labor force receive Medicaid.

 

 

Any Medicaid recipient who can get a doctor to write a prescription for painkillers (evidently, not a particularly difficult thing to do) can get the most expensive street drugs, such as OxyContin, for just a $3 co-pay. Pharmaceutical companies are more than willing to supply vast amounts of addictive drugs to American consumers, especially with the government paying most of the bill.

Coupling this insanely easy and legal method of acquiring Opioids with a flood of dangerous drugs on the streets from illegal cartels, there is no wonder that we have an unprecedented epidemic in our country.

Criminal Records

Many of the unemployed and underemployed run into difficulties like those we have discussed, and end up with a drug offense or felony on their record.  How will this affect their job prospects in the future?

It is much easier today for prospective employers (or landlords) to access databases and do background checks. Many jobs are simply off-limits to people with a felony or drug offense … even finding an apartment to rent becomes virtually impossible.

Thinking About Solutions

We will conclude this series next week, and hope to shed some light on a very difficult subject.  We will look at the thinking of Congress and the Administration on the prospects for putting people to work.  Hopefully, these would involve something more tangible than promising expansion of jobs in declining industries, as the President trumpeted on the campaign trail.

We will finish with a discussion of the Future of Work, automation and artificial intelligence in the American Economy, and analyze growth prospects for our economy and our labor force.

 

 

 

 

IntelDigest – May 31, 2017

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MAY 31 , 2017

Contact Richard Power with comments or questions. IntelDigest  is intended for the use of our clients and colleagues.  Material may not be reproduced, forwarded or shared without express permission.

If you are still wondering how Donald Trump was able to win the Presidency despite massive odds against him, perhaps this issue of  IntelDigest  will explain a lot.  We continue a series on the subject of “Work in America.” Please feel free to go to the  IntelDigest Archive  to review the earlier issues, dated May 17 and May 24.

Work in America

The heart of the problem in U.S. Employment is that many American jobs, especially in manufacturing, have been contracting for decades.

Donald Trump became President by speaking to a large group of voters … millions of Americans who were unemployed or underemployed … who were virtually ignored by other candidates.  By speaking to their anxieties, he won the White House.

Of course, he won over those voters, primarily, by blaming competition from Chinese workers and undocumented Mexicans for the loss of jobs in the American heartland. Actually, there is little truth to either claim.  But, these were Americans whose fathers had had much better jobs than they could obtain.  They wanted a “better deal.”  And, Trump promised to make a better deal for them.

But, foreign workers have played a very small part in the contraction of jobs in the U.S.  Economic growth rates have been trending down for 40 years.  The number of people with “breadwinner” jobs … as a percentage of the working-age population … is at a 40-year low.

The overall civilian labor force (comprising both men and women) grew steadily for much of the latter half of the 20th Century.  After a decline from 2000 to 2010, the employment rate has leveled off.

However, the Male participation rate has been in steady decline since 1950.

As we stated last week, that large numbers of American men in their prime are simply not working has become a significant political and cultural problem in our society.

Men Without Work

Approximately 10 million American men of prime working age (25 to 54) have simply dropped out of the workforce in recent years;  further, many of them have also
abdicated their commitments or responsibilities to society, and their role in community life.

Male participation in the civilian labor force has been steadily dropping for 60 years, through boom and bust years, periods of inflation and deflation, conservative and liberal presidential administrations, Republican and Democratic congressional control.

The trend has been relentless, and was in place long before automation began to really impact the manufacturing workforce, or jobs began to shift to China and other countries with lower labor costs.  However, it picked up speed after the Financial Crisis of 2008.

Forces at Work

To a great extent, technological progress has eliminated opportunities for the low-skilled, especially in manufacturing.  Researchers have estimated that over 85% of manufacturing job losses in recent years are attributable to growth in productivity in U.S. factories, while closer to 13% can be traced to foreign imports.

The impact on society is acute.  As economic life has become less secure, low-skilled men (both White Males and Men of Color) have tended toward unstable cohabiting relationships;  for the most part, they eschew traditional marriage and traditional communal religion.

A large percentage become more likely to stop working … or even looking for work … entirely.  Such a breakdown of family, community, and structure often leads to blaming themselves and feeling helpless and desperate.

The collapse of work opportunities for American men is really a crisis.  However, it has been largely an invisible crisis … seldom discussed in the media or academia or business or the halls of the legislatures which should be tasked with addressing the problem.  Where has the concern been for the last few decades?

The detachment of so many adult American men from the ranks of regular paid labor poses a threat to the future prosperity of the United States.  It can only result in lower living standards, greater economic disparities, and slower economic growth than we might otherwise expect.

What of the societal, cultural, and moral repercussions on American life?  Many men have lost their status as productive members of their families, and live as dependents of their wives, girlfriends, partners, aging parents, or the government.  The American culture was built on a foundation of hard work and self-reliance;  for many, the “new normal” of their lives is quite discordant.

For years, economists and policymakers serving under both Republican and Democratic presidents have been cheerleaders for employment numbers published by the federal government.  Within just the last two years, none other than the two most-recent chairmen of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, have been “encouraged” by the U.S. economy and the state of “full employment.”

As we stated last week, such proclamations of “full employment” are laughable.

The “real” unemployment numbers are 3-4 times the “official” statistics.  And, the great contradiction of economic life in America is that economic growth has produced markedly more wealth for “those that have,” and markedly less work for many American (mostly male) workers.

Is it not apparent, then, that a large voting bloc of American workers … untouched as they were by the (slow) growth of the economy … was dissatisfied with the direction of the country, feeling the sting of their own continuing recession, and heeding more extremist voices in the political landscape?

We will have more on Work in America and the Future of Work in the next two issues of  IntelDigest  … looking at mortality and addiction and social insecurity of the American Worker … automation and artificial intelligence in the American Economy.

And, we will ask, “Where will Growth come from” to improve Work in America?