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IntelDigest
LAW – POLICY – FINANCE – MARKETS
INFORMATION FOR THE ENTERPRISE AND INVESTOR
JUNE 28 , 2017
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We continue a series on “Technology and Connectivity” in this issue of IntelDigest.
Global Forces
Trade, technology, and demographics have evolved into the primary forces affecting the Global Economy.
Trade among countries and peoples has gone on for millennia, and became truly intercontinental with the Venetian traders (even before Marco Polo) a thousand years ago. With every new innovation in communication and transportation, global trade has grown by leaps and bounds. The Industrial Revolution and development of the steamship in the 1800s hastened traders to the far corners of the earth. Post-World War II, the innovation of containerized shipping drastically reduced the cost of moving goods around the world.
The Information Technology (IT) revolution in the 1990s made it possible to move data and ideas across borders with lightning speed. The very nature of the Global Economy has changed radically in just the last 25 years because of technological advances. We have discussed the impact on “Work in America.” Please feel free to go to the IntelDigest Archive to review the earlier issues, dated from mid-May to mid-June of this year.
Knowledge and technology have expanded opportunities in emerging countries. Businesses and their workers have been able to join the global supply chain, producing a multitude of products … from semiconductors to machine parts … paving their own paths toward economic prosperity.
The future of IT promises more momentous innovations. One example will be advances in telerobotics, enabling users to overcome geographical boundaries, to interact with people in other countries and continents, to work at jobs in other parts of the world without leaving home.
As China Evolves
China has been the face of the economic evolution over the last three decades. Demographics played a major role in its development. Its massive labor pool allowed China to rapidly gain status as the “Factory to the World” for production and assembly of light manufactured goods. In just a few years, Western companies moved manufacture of a growing number of high-end goods, such is iPhones, to China. A worldwide Bull Market in commodities resulted from China’s industrial evolution, as raw materials were needed to produce goods for Western markets and build massive new cities around the country.
Now, a shift is underway, toward a growing services sector, production of more valuable goods, and a more sustainable long-term growth driven by domestic consumption. This is a work in progress, and every step along the way impacts the Global Economy, illustrating the importance of China as the Second Largest Economy in the world.
As China’s economy shifts, slowing growth is cutting into the bottom lines of other economies around the world, both developed countries and emerging economies. Commodity exporters had reaped the benefits of heavy construction and investment in China since the late-1990s. Now, the reduced need for raw materials forces painful readjustments and financial stresses at home.
Meanwhile, advanced economies are concerned about Chinese competitiveness in manufacturing more high-end parts … semiconductors, transistors, liquid crystal displays for computer screens … which China previously imported from the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Beijing would like to see more high-end goods sold domestically, and less dependence on export markets for the Chinese economy.
Transformation
As the Global Economy changed rapidly over the last 25 years with the growth in China, be prepared for yet another transformation in world markets. Deep structural changes are underway, which will likely last another 25 years. Along with the maturation of the China economy, the old model of using labor-intensive, low-end manufacturing as an engine for growth is fading.
Information Technology supports a new paradigm. Productivity is a key driver of economic growth, and investments in technology which can raise output and lower costs are critical to competitiveness.
The dilemma is that advances and innovations in several technologies, such as robotics and advanced manufacturing, which have made industry more efficient in the 21st Century, have not left much room or opportunity for the unskilled or low-skilled worker. Manufacturing can no longer be counted on as a major creator of jobs.
The best opportunities in manufacturing in the coming decades will be jobs involved in programming and maintaining the robotic machines which will increasingly displace humans for repetitive tasks. Automation of routine services jobs and advances in computerization will continue to change the Nature of Work; workers will have to learn the skills needed to fill jobs where human innovation and creativity is not as easily replaced by computers.
Next week, we will continue this series on “Technology and Connectivity,” comparing the effects of technology on our own society and on some of our trade partners and rivals.