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JANUARY 18 , 2017
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Is there a “Trump Doctrine” on foreign relations? If so, does anyone know what it is?
We look abroad in this issue of IntelDigest. On the eve of a presidential inaugural, we try to divine the outline of a foreign policy in the new administration. Does the incoming president have a sense of where he wants to take the country internationally? Or, will this be a “seat-of-the-pants” operation? Is Donald Trump’s “unconventional” behavior a carefully-considered stratagem meant to keep allies and competitors overseas “on their toes?” Or, is he simply feeling his way in an area where he has no prior experience?
Will The Trump Doctrine be based on economic nationalism? Or militarism? Or a rejection of liberal internationalism? Or, will Donald Trump and his team simply react to international events?
Points of View
There is actually a parallel to Barack Obama’s assumption of office eight years ago. Obama, too, had very little foreign policy experience. However, the demeanor and personality of the president-elect is such a polar opposite to President Obama that the parallel ends there.
Barack Obama, as president, has been a realist. He understood that his victory in the 2008 Election was attributable, in great measure, to his campaign promise to bring home American military men and women who were engaged in extended Middle East conflicts. He considered it his mission to re-balance the projection of American power, and reduce our involvement in wars in the Islamic world.
The Obama philosophy of foreign affairs was characterized primarily by Restraint and Civility, and he took the long view. He pivoted the U.S. focus toward the Far East, where the U.S. now has more economic interest than in the Middle East. And, he has tried to re-boot the long-standing strife with Cuba and Iran in order to set our relationships with those countries on a more productive path going forward.
President Obama has been a forward-thinking Internationalist. Although he encouraged our allies to pay a greater share of the costs of security, he never threatened to take away the U.S. security umbrella.
To Obama, foreign trade was a means of building alliances and containing conflicts; however, when protectionist measures were required, the U.S. led G-20 countries in carrying out discriminatory-trade measures on certain industries, such as metals. He saw that technology was changing the world, upsetting familiar manufacturing practices and taking away jobs everywhere. He understood that companies had to change their business operations in order to survive; workers would be left behind unless they adapted and upgraded their technological understanding.
For Obama, the long-term impact of climate change was a much more existential threat to this country than short-term threats posed by the Islamic State.
Barack Obama took the long view. It may have been to his own detriment, and that of his party. But, that didn’t make him wrong.
By contrast, Donald Trump presents himself as a Nationalist.
Based on data drawn from his campaign rhetoric, his post-election Twitter posts, and his Cabinet nominations, we have a preliminary picture of his views on foreign affairs.
Trump’s narrower, more nationalistic viewpoint may tend to be more myopic in assessing threats from overseas. He has expressed a disdain for long-held collective security arrangements, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He seems to be more interested in bilateral, rather than multi-lateral, treaties and trade deals.
His proposed solution for displaced American labor is to punish foreign trade partners, rather than to retool the U.S. workforce to adapt to demographic and technological change. Climate change concerns will certainly take a back seat to more immediate desires to ease regulations on business.
His negative comments on China trade and currency, along with the kerfuffle over relations with Taiwan, indicate an intent to deal harshly with China. Meanwhile, his “bromance” with Vladimir Putin and staunch defense of Russia against U.S. intelligence agencies indicate that he has strong views on relations with Russia.
Perhaps he sees the One-China policy and contentiousness with Russia to be relics of the Cold War, and he intends to turn those situations on their heads.
Most Americans would welcome better relations with Russia, especially on our terms. However, one may be concerned that short-term conflicts with Beijing over trade and Taiwan could cost the U.S. a much bigger strategic advantage with respect to greater China issues, such as cyberspace and open sea lanes.
Negotiation As Strategy
Evidently, Trump sees Russia more as a business competitor than as a dangerous enemy requiring Cold War-era collective security commitments. And, he may have a point (notwithstanding Russia’s 7,000 nuclear warheads).
Russia is far-removed from the Soviet empire trying to spread a Communist ideology around the world. Instead, Moscow is focused on basic tasks: forging a national identity in a very large land mass encompassing hundreds of disparate cultures and ethnicities; insulating the state and its borderlands from Western encroachment, such as the Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine; maintaining pension, social welfare, and military salary payments in an economy in severe recession; anticipating greater domestic turmoil in its far-flung provinces over these issues.
The incoming administration sees an opening to develop a new understanding with Moscow, settle the issues in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and work together with respect to Syria and the Islamic State. Perhaps a new relationship would lead to the end of sanctions against Russia, new investment in Russia, and a new nuclear arms treaty.
Keeping the World on Its Toes
Donald Trump’s biggest advantage is his unpredictability. He makes people uncomfortable, and generates a feeling of chaos.
Whereas President Obama had been criticized as overly cautious in his foreign policy, and thus too much of a known entity for U.S. adversaries; Donald Trump gives the impression that he is willing to throw caution to the wind and rely on instinct in shaping foreign policy.
This may have the effect of keeping both our allies and adversaries “on their toes.” At the beginning of the Trump Administration, there could be value in keeping others off-balance, at least until the government can settle in and craft a cogent strategy and foreign policy.
Trump’s Core Beliefs
Perhaps we can discern The Trump Doctrine by looking at the President-Elect’s core beliefs, as far as we can identify them:
Trump prizes business acumen and a “killer” instinct for managing affairs
Trump believes in tough deal-making – identifying sources of leverage and showing a willingness to use them
Trump sees Nationalism as the natural and rightful path for every country, including the United States, in protecting its interests.
Trump believes that the United States is losing its competitiveness, and blames that on globalism and Obama’s Internationalist foreign policy
Trump believes that U.S. foreign policy has become too predictable, stuck in a quagmire of international diplomacy
Trump believes that it is better to “tell it like it is” — and call out institutions and conventions that have outlived their usefulness.
Foreign Policy Options
So, The Trump Doctrine could go one of several ways. It could be a doctrine of Militarism. This would probably be the choice of General Flynn, the incoming National Security Advisor, who sees the Islamic State as an existential threat to the United States. Flynn would urge a Global Crusade against Radical Islam. But, Trump the Deal-Maker would not be inclined to go this way.
It could be a doctrine of Isolationism — America First. This would certainly be agreeable to Trump, but contrary to his deal-making tendencies.
We expect that The Trump Doctrine would be one of Economic Nationalism, where President Trump can be Businessman Trump with enormous amounts of power. Trump would want the opportunity to flex his negotiation muscles on a larger stage — to “Get the Best Deal” for the country.
As a businessman, Trump has lived by certain maxims: Maximize Options; Eliminate Costly Competition; Use Leverage against adversaries and to motivate allies.
We believe that Economic Nationalism is a doctrine which is most in keeping with the espoused beliefs of the incoming President, and one which he would be excited to apply on a global stage.